EXPLAINER: What does a Trump win in the 2024 US presidential election mean for the Philippines?

"The US election results can definitely affect our country, not just the Filipinos who are living in the US but also the Filipinos who are living here,” UST PolSci chair Dennis Coronacion said in an interview with PhilSTAR L!fe, explaining that this is because of our longstanding ties with them.

The political analyst pointed out that we could benefit more from a Harris presidency under the assumption that she was going to build on the different policies that outgoing president Joe Biden previously set for the US. According to him, such measures—especially the ones concerning immigration, trade, economy, among others—have worked for their diplomatic allies like the PH during his term. 

Jean Franco, an associate professor at UP Diliman's Department of Political Science, also told L!fe that a Harris win could have meant victory for women and Asians—including Pinoys. (Harris is known to sympathize with cultural minorities since she has black and Asian American roots. According to BBC, her Indian and Jamaican parents immigrated to the US to study.)

“She would have been the first woman president of the US and the first woman of color to be president of the US,” she said. “It could have been a boost to the promotion of women’s rights all over the world and in the Philippines, too.”

But now that another Trump presidency is coming, what could this mean for Filipinos?

Immigration policy

In an interview with TIME Magazine, Trump pledged to hold the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history," targeting an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US should he be given another chance to lead their nation.

“These are people that aren’t legally in our country. This is an invasion of our country—an invasion like probably no country has ever seen before,” he stressed as he reiterated his intention to strengthen the strident immigration policies he enacted during his first term.

According to Coronacion, Trump's victory could mean a low for FIlipinos who are still hoping to fulfill their dream of staying in the US for good. While there are about 4.1 million Filipino Americans living there since 2022, as shown in data from the US Census Bureau, the political analyst said a “great number” of Pinoys is still awaiting approval of their application for a citizenship there.

“Apektado sila kung maghigpit na naman during the presidency of Donald Trump,” he said, raising the possibility of delays and other immigration concerns for ordinary Filipinos in the US.

Asian hate

During the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump made a series of posts about the infectious disease that he repeatedly referred to as "China Virus" as it first broke out in Wuhan, China. A 2021 study published in the American Journal of Public Health stated that his tweets led to more anti-Asian content on X, which was then known as Twitter, and “likely perpetuated racist attitudes.”

Anti-Asian incidents remain prevalent in the US. A survey shared on USA Today found that nearly half of Asian Americans there were victims of a hate act in 2023 alone, which mostly took place in parking lots, public transportation, schools, and workplaces.

CNA reported in May this year that when Trump announced his bid for presidency, Asian Americans were quick to express fear and worry that Asian hate crimes could only increase in their country.

Franco echoed the same concern. “If we're talking about Filipinos in the US, we've seen how Trump has campaigned on the basis of hate and violence, and that’s not very good for Filipinos,” she told L!fe. “In the past few years, there have been Asian hate crimes and that’s something that we don’t want Pinoys to experience.”

Security, defense, and the West Philippine Sea

Coronacion said a Trump win could affect us in the area of regional security in terms of the support the US could give to the Philippines under his administration.

Unlike Biden, who consistently expressed his support for us in our fight for the West Philippine Sea against China, Trump “has been very much against America interfering in other parts of the world,” per Franco.

“We have already seen how the support being provided by the US has somehow lessened the maritime aggression of China,” Coronacion noted. “My worry is a Trump presidency is going to somehow affect the level of support that’s been given to us by the Biden administration, which has been very supportive to the country and has long considered us its traditional allies.” According to him, such have been evident in the military assistance, financial assistance, and even joint military exercises the US has provided to the Philippines in the past years.

When Trump was US president from 2017 to 2021, Coronacion said he had an "America First" agenda that prioritized the interest of their country above all else. "Even in the area of defense, 'yung mga defense cooperation, kapag hindi favorable sa interest ng US, agad-agad na nagpu-pull out 'yung US government under his leadership,” he explained.

The political scientist said Trump is not so fond of international agreements, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, whose purpose is to ensure the freedom and security of its member countries through political and military means. “Nakikita niya na gastos lang ito on the part of the US. Kumbaga, ang tingin niya sa mga ito ay pabigat lamang, pandagdag lang ng gastos sa mga Americans," he explained, adding that such mindset could affect our relationship with the US in the years to come.

Economy and trade

During Trump's first presidency, Coronacion highlighted that the Republican also became known for his "US first" approach when it came to foreign policy and trade.

“We have known Trump as a president who sees to it that the American interest takes primacy over the interest of other countries. He was always thinking about and pursuing the interest of Americans in any trading bloc and in any international trade agreement,” the political scientist explained, noting how he would withdraw from the ones that he saw wouldn't bring much benefit to the US then.

The same is expected of Trump when he makes his return to the White House, said Coronacion.

Emphasizing how he could lead the US the same way he did before like a businessman, he predicted, "Baka hindi [maging] ganun kasupportive sa atin ang US kasi tingin ni Trump, gastos lang 'yan kapag maraming US involvement.”

CNBC News reported that prior to his reelection, Trump vowed a 10-20% tariff on all imports arriving into the US and a 60-100% tariff on Chinese goods, marking an "aggressive expansion of existing U.S. tariffs on cross-border trade."

Since the US is a major trading partner of the Philippines, Franco said his upcoming measures in line with economy and trade could impact our country in one way or another.

Now that Americans have picked their next president and their choice matters to the rest of the world, the best thing the Philippines can do is meet Trump halfway and adjust to the possible effects of the outcome of the 2024 US polls.

"The only way we can make the most out of our ties with the US is to adapt to his administration’s policies and programs," Coronacion suggested. "If his government will be less supportive to our country in some aspects mainly for financial reasons, then let's show him that we have become more self-reliant now than we were during his first term. That way, if the United States will continue to support us, it doesn’t necessarily translate to shouldering the financial cost."