Alcala, Cagayan mayor slams PAGASA for 'late' super typhoon alert, but is PAGASA to blame?
Alcala, Cagayan mayor Tin Antonio slammed the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) for supposedly not advising that Super Typhoon Ofel had changed its path and was moving closer to her hometown.
The mayor took to Facebook to air her grievances, writing "What the hell PAGASA[?] a [super typhoon] changed track and landed in Baggao AND YOU DID NOT TELL US?!! DIRECT HIT KAMI! KARGO 'NYO!"
Her post has since gone viral, earning mixed reactions from online users.
In another post, Antonio said she took issue with the supposed "untimely" information.
"Typhoon paths are unpredictable, we all understand that completely. But to learn of the change in track that places our town on a much closer, dangerous path minutes before a trumpeted supertyphoon is upon us is unacceptable," she said.
The mayor added that she only learned about the advisory after the typhoon made landfall.
"Landfall in Baggao was 1:30 p.m.; PAGASA made the announcement at 2:07 p.m. As late as 11:00 a.m. landfall forecast was at Sta. Ana area. Why were we not given the information earlier?" she added, lamenting that the weather bureau could have given a warning between 11 a.m. and the 1:30 p.m. landfall.
In the comments section, she was criticized by users who pointed out that her municipality was "within the cone of uncertainty." The cone of uncertainty, according to the Weather Channel, represents the probable track of the center of a typhoon over a period of time.
Others pointed out how there was time for the mayor to prepare as forecasts began being released.
"Madam mayor, it was forecasted that it will hit Cagayan ahead of time. Even people outside of Cagayan know it will affect Cagayan. Every town should have prepared for the worst case scenario and anticipated all the possible risks," one user commented.
"The highest storm signal no. 5 [was] raised in Cagayan. That's already a clear sign po na you should take this matter seriously. That's PAGASA's early warning to your LGU to be prepared," another added.
Did PAGASA give enough warning?
PAGASA issued its first Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for Ofel on Nov. 12, 5 a.m., forecasting that it would affect northern Luzon.
"By the moment that Ofel entered [the Philippine Area of Responsibility], it was already forecasted to hit Cagayan. On the day itself, Nov. 14, may 5 a.m., 8 a.m., and 11 a.m. advisories na and even public storm warning signals na rin. That would alert the people in Cagayan that the hazard is certain to come by their way," wind engineer and UP Diliman assistant professor Joshua Agar told PhilSTAR L!fe.
At 5 a.m. on Nov. 14, PAGASA issued a weather advisory warning of intense to torrential heavy rainfall to be expected in Cagayan. It also estimated that the eye of the Super Typhoon was 165 meters east southeast of Tuguegarao City in Cagayan. Antonio's Alcala is about 39.1 kilometers away from the said city.
The eye of a typhoon, or its center, has fair weather with little to no rain. It is surrounded by a circular ring of thick clouds.
The weather bureau also predicted that Ofel was to move northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan. Landfall refers to the incidence the center of a typhoon hits a body of land, as per PAGASA.
At 11 a.m., PAGASA said that Ofel continued to endanger the Cagayan Valley region. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 5 was in effect for Santa Ana and Gonzaga in Cagayan and TCWS No. 4 for other municipalities like Baggao, Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, and Aparri. Ofel was forecast to move northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan.
"Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone," it noted.
The forecast confidence cone refers to the likelihood of the predicted track being accurate. With PAGASA stating that the forecasted track of the storm could shift and affect areas outside the landfall point, there was sufficient warning about Ofel hitting Cagayan.
Can typhoon paths be predicted?
"It is possible to predict typhoon paths, granted that we can model to a high degree of confidence the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperatures, large-scale effect), we then use the known governing equations (physics) while also considering the statistical nature of the mentioned boundary conditions," Agar said. "That's how scientists are able to make forecasts."
"Scientists are also aware of those uncertainties. The sea-surface temperature can change, a high-pressure area will persist longer, or there are generated wind shears, which can cause deviations. That's why the forecasts have that cone of uncertainty," he added.
Lead times for wind signals to take effect
In a press briefing on Nov. 15, PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Chris Perez explained that as the center of the typhoon moves along the forecast track, it will affect more areas. He expounded on the topic as he talked about the path of Typhoon Pepito, the other storm that has entered PAR.
"Sa forecast track natin, habang kumikilos ito patungong Catanduanes at Quezon area, dahan dahan ding lalawak yung mga makakaranas ng pag-ulan."
Perez also explained how wind signals have a certain lead time. For instance, areas with wind signal no. 1 may not experience rainfall yet, but that's because there's a 36-hour allowance.
"Yung mga mas malapit na exposed sa bagyo, maaring less than 36 hours yung actual na lead time bago nila maramdaman," he said.
Perez continued to say that while the wind signal is lower, it could rise as the storm approaches. He also said that all areas with warning signals should prepare for the typhoon.
"Hindi lamang ang tatawirin ng sentro [ng bagyo] ang dapat maghanda. Dapat lahat ng lugar na may warning signal ay maghanda regardless of nasa higher warning signal kayo sa mga susunod na araw or nasa wind signal no. 1 lang kayo. Kung nasa direct path man kayo ng sentro o nasasakupan ng bagyo kahit malayo sa sentro, dapat handa po tayo lagi sa worst-case scenario," he added.
Meanwhile, Agar gave some tips on how to prepare for when a super typhoon is forecast in your area.
- Know your location, and check the surrounding topography. Conditions or the strength of the winds will differ depending on whether you are inland, by the coast, on top of a hill, or adjacent to a tall building.
- Refer to the impact descriptions of PAGASA per warning signals issued to have a description of the possible risk in your location.
- Shore up your building, expect building vibration, and retrofit your building if necessary.
As of 6 p.m., the weather bureau said that Ofel had left the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, a TCWS is still in effect over the extreme northern Luzon area.